A little insight from Dr. Larrie Ferreiro from SEOR.

 

FYI, the average of the all guesses for each jar were:

 

Jar 1: 176 (actual 168, within 5%)

Jar 2: 157 (actual 148, within 6%)

Jar 3: 175 (actual 229, within 30%)

 

Two-thirds of the jar guesses verify Galton's theory popularized in the Wisdom of Crowds), that the average guess is more accurate the most individual guesses

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds  

The Wisdom of Crowds - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many Are Smarter Than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economies, Societies and Nations, published in 2004, is a book ...

 

 

Dr. Larrie D. Ferreiro
Systems Engineering and Operations Research
Volgenau School of Engineering
George Mason University
Fairfax, VA
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From: Joyce Rose <[log in to unmask]>
Sent: Thursday, October 22, 2015 11:10 AM
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Results of the Fall Candy Guessing Contest

 

Good Morning Everyone,

 

The results are in for the Candy Guessing Contest…….

 

The winner of Jar #1 is Susan Brionez with a guess of 175 when the jar actually contained 168 candies.

The winners of Jar #2 are Richard Carver and Terri Mancini. Both guessed the exact number of candies in the jar (148).

The winner of Jar #3 is Suzie Mueller with a guess of 234 when the jar actually contained 229 candies.

 

The winners can come up to the Dean’s Suite 5100 to collect their prize of the candy, jar and a gift card.

 

Looking at these guesses, Bill Rosenberger might want to examine these entries for possible candidates for his STAT 250 class. J

 

IMG_0734Smarties- Jar 1

52

53

100

117

127

128

129

133

135

143

149

150

154

157

168

exact number

175

closest guess-Susan Brionez

178

209

210

237

300

327

523

 

 

IMG_0735Ridges - Jar 2

48

53

72

87

90

95

98

121

137

148

winner- Terri Mancini

148

winner - Richard Carver

148

exact number

163

178

183

195

196

198

200

200

200

209

284

327

IMG_0736Beverage-Jar 3

53

72

75

107

131

135

139

143

154

161

163

173

187

189

193

200

209

216

220

229

exact number

234

winner-Susie Mueller

234

249

327

Enjoy the season!

Joyce Rose

 

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