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A little insight from Dr. Larrie Ferreiro from SEOR.



FYI, the average of the all guesses for each jar were:



Jar 1: 176 (actual 168, within 5%)

Jar 2: 157 (actual 148, within 6%)

Jar 3: 175 (actual 229, within 30%)



Two-thirds of the jar guesses verify Galton's theory popularized in the Wisdom of Crowds), that the average guess is more accurate the most individual guesses

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds
[https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/95/Wisecrowds.jpg]<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds>

The Wisdom of Crowds - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many Are Smarter Than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economies, Societies and Nations, published in 2004, is a book ...
Read more...<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds>




Dr. Larrie D. Ferreiro
Systems Engineering and Operations Research
Volgenau School of Engineering
George Mason University
Fairfax, VA
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________________________________
From: Joyce Rose <[log in to unmask]<mailto:[log in to unmask]>>
Sent: Thursday, October 22, 2015 11:10 AM
To: [log in to unmask]<mailto:[log in to unmask]>
Subject: Results of the Fall Candy Guessing Contest


Good Morning Everyone,



The results are in for the Candy Guessing Contest.......



The winner of Jar #1 is Susan Brionez with a guess of 175 when the jar actually contained 168 candies.

The winners of Jar #2 are Richard Carver and Terri Mancini. Both guessed the exact number of candies in the jar (148).

The winner of Jar #3 is Suzie Mueller with a guess of 234 when the jar actually contained 229 candies.



The winners can come up to the Dean's Suite 5100 to collect their prize of the candy, jar and a gift card.



Looking at these guesses, Bill Rosenberger might want to examine these entries for possible candidates for his STAT 250 class. :)



[IMG_0734]Smarties- Jar 1


52


53


100


117


127


128


129


133


135


143


149


150


154


157


168


exact number


175


closest guess-Susan Brionez


178


209


210


237


300


327


523







[IMG_0735]Ridges - Jar 2


48


53


72


87


90


95


98


121


137


148


winner- Terri Mancini


148


winner - Richard Carver


148


exact number


163


178


183


195


196


198


200


200


200


209


284


327





[IMG_0736]Beverage-Jar 3


53


72


75


107


131


135


139


143


154


161


163


173


187


189


193


200


209


216


220


229


exact number


234


winner-Susie Mueller


234


249


327




Enjoy the season!

Joyce Rose



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