> *Dissertation Defense Announcement
> To:  The George Mason University Community*
>
> *Candidate: David L. Bolduc
> Program:    PhD Biodefense
> *
> *Date:   Tuesday April 26, 2011
> Time:   1:30 p.m. 
> Place:  George Mason University
> ** 	     Research I Bldg., Room 161
> 	     Fairfax campus <http://www.gmu.edu/resources/visitors/findex.html>
>   
> Dissertation Chair: Dr. Robert L. Dudley
> Committee members: Dr. Charles L. Bailey, Dr. Joseph A. Marr*
> *Title: "Development of an Algorithm for Predicting /'Relative Risk'/
>             of Terrorist-CBRN"
> *
> The dissertation is on reserve in the Johnson Center Library, Fairfax campus.
> The doctoral project will not be read at the meeting, but should be read in advance. 
> /**/All members of the George Mason University community are invited to attend.
>
>
> *ABSTRACT: 
> *In the past decade there has been a tremendous rise in the number of extremist groups with radical goals.  To achieve their objectives, some of these groups 
> are resorting to terrorist tactics.  With the rapid expansion of scientific technology brought on through increasing globalization, the prospect of incorporating the
> use of chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear (CBRN) weapons into their tactics is becoming increasingly feasible and likely.  As these radical groups
> become more energized, they may resort to using CBRN.  In order to avert a disaster from a terrorist-CBRN (T-CBRN) event, it is important to study
> the likelihood of these groups employing CBRN.  Analysts continue to search for sound methodologies in assessing the risk of such groups pursuing CBRN.
> Psychological and mathematical modeling attempts have been made in discerning terrorist's propensities for CBRN Asal (2010), Sullivan and Perry (2004), 
> Post (2002), Tucker (2000) etc., but there still remains considerable gaps in these areas.  
>   
>
>  
>
> Because of the deficiencies in analytical methodologies and 
> controversial techniques used for modeling T-CBRN, we proposed the 
> questions: can a more accurate predictive model of T-CBRN use be 
> developed?  And, when compared against past event data, would such a 
> model reliably predict the amount of "/Relative Risk/" of a terrorist 
> that would elect to use CBRN?
>
>  
>
>  This study entailed the development of an algorithm linked with 
> statistical software (ProStat Version 5.5, Poly Software 
> International) for predicting the Relative Risk of a terrorist seeking 
> CBRN.  This was achieved through four phases.  Phase I involved 
> searching open literature and proposing independent-variables 
> associated with T-CBRN.  Phase II entailed the construction of a 
> "/Random-Nations Matrix/" representing the T-CBRN universe.  This 
> matrix was then used for correlating variables suspected of being 
> associated with T-CBRN.  Phase III involved the construction of a 
> multivariate model from the variables which met our correlation 
> criteria with T-CBRN.  The final phase, Phase IV, entailed the 
> construction of an algorithm derived from the model design, for 
> predicting the amount of Relative Risk of a terrorist seeking, 
> acquiring and or using CBRN, and the Relative Risk of T-CBRN occurring 
> in a specific country.   Probability was measured by the strength of 
> the relationship indicated by the p-value.
>
>  
>
>  The study drew primarily from the following databases: the Memorial 
> Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism (2007), the U.S. Department 
> of State (2010), Globalsecurity.org (2010), the Global Terrorism 
> Database (2010), the Central Intelligence Agency World Fact Book 
> (2009-2010), the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation 
> Studies/Monterey WMD Terrorism Database (2010), the Center for Defense 
> Information (2009), the Freedom House Center for Systemic Peace (2009) 
> and the McDonald's Corporation's list of worldwide McDonald's 
> restaurants (2010).
>
>  
>
> A Random Nations Matrix was developed for determining the two 
> independent-variables that correlated with our dependent-variable 
> "/Terrorist-CBRN/".  This matrix was constructed from the random 
> selection of 74 countries and/or locations from the CIA World Fact 
> Book (2009-2010).  Thirty-nine of the same variables were measured for 
> each of the seventy-four selected countries or locations compiled in 
> the matrix.  The 39 variables selected for each country or location, 
> were correlated with each other and the T-CBRN variable for 
> determining correlative significance.  A multivariate-model was 
> developed with 67.3 percent predictive power for T-CBRN using the 
> independent-variables: "/Political Violence Per Capita/" and "/Number 
> of Terrorist-CBRN Technical Experts/".  Average lag-times between 
> terrorist's interest and use of CBRN were also calculated for the 
> various classifications of terrorist-groups.
>
>