April 2013


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Yunpeng Zhao <[log in to unmask]>
Mon, 15 Apr 2013 10:19:31 -0400
Yunpeng Zhao <[log in to unmask]>
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Seminar Announcement


*Estimating Restricted Mean Job Tenures in Semi-competing Risk Data
Compensating Victims of Discrimination *

*Qing Pan    ***

*Statistics Department*

*George Washington University*

*Johnson Center G19 - Gold Room*

* 4400 University Drive, Fairfax, VA 22030***

*Time: 11:00 A.M. - 12:00 P.M.***

*Date: Friday, Apr 19, 2013 ***


When plaintiffs prevail in a discrimination case, a major component of the
calculation of economic loss is the length of time they would have been in
the higher position had they been treated fairly during the period in which
the employer practiced discrimination. This problem is complicated by the
fact that one's eligibility for promotion is subject to termination by
retirement and both the promotion and retirement processes may be affected
by discriminatory practices. This semi-competing risk process is modeled by
a retirement process and a promotion process among the employees.
Predictions for the purpose of compensation are made by utilizing the
expected promotion and retirement probabilities of similarly qualified
members of the non-discriminated group. The restricted mean durations of
three periods are estimated - the time an employee would be at the lower
position, at the higher level and in retirement. The asymptotic properties
of the estimators are presented and examined through simulation studies.
The proposed restricted mean job duration estimators are shown to be robust
in the presence of an independent frailty term. Data from the reverse
discrimination case, Alexander v. Milwaukee, where White-male lieutenants
were discriminated in promotion to captain are reanalyzed. While the
appellate court upheld liability, it reversed the original damage
calculations, which heavily depended on the time a plaintiff would have
been in each position. The results obtained by the proposed method are
compared to those made at the first trial. Substantial differences in both
directions are observed.

Yunpeng Zhao, PhD

Assistant Professor
Department of Statistics
Volgenau School of Engineering <[log in to unmask]>
George Mason University
Engineering Building, Room 1719, MS 4A7
4400 University Drive
Fairfax, VA 22030-4444

Phone: 703-993-1674
Email: [log in to unmask]