Notice and Invitation
 Oral Defense of Doctoral Dissertation
The Volgenau School of Engineering, George Mason University

Ridwana Binte Sharif
Master of Science in Civil Engineering
University of Louisiana at Lafayette,  2019
Bachelor of Science in Water Resources Engineering
Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, 2017

Changes in Precipitation Patterns and Trends across the Contiguous United States

Monday, June 10, 2024, 10:00 a.m.
Zoom meeting details below.
All are invited to attend.

Committee
Dr. Viviana Maggioni, Dissertation Director
Dr. Celso Ferreira, Committee Member
Dr. Lucas Henneman, Committee Member
Dr. James L. Kinter III, Committee Member

Abstract:


The need for reliable information on changing precipitation patterns stems from addressing current and future challenges in the hydrological, environmental, agricultural and water resources management sectors. As anthropogenic climate signals have intensified, precipitation patterns have changed over the Contiguous United States (CONUS) and may continue to change in the future. This work evaluates precipitation simulated by the Community Earth System Model Version 2 large ensemble (CESM2-LE) against ground-based observations in detecting changes in past precipitation patterns across CONUS. CESM2 was found to underestimate (overestimate) ground observations over CONUS in summer (winter). Higher rainfall magnitudes in the Northwestern CONUS are not captured in the climate model simulations. This work also compares precipitation patterns changes from observations in the past century to the change in the later decades of 21st century across CONUS using future projections of CESM2-LE for a medium to high emission scenario. Historical data show slightly upward patterns in annual, spring, fall, and winter averages, patterns that are projected to continue in the future. Overall results indicate drier summers and wetter winters in the future with respect to the past. This study places a strong emphasis on understanding reliable future climate projections, which can be useful when designing community-driven adaptation and mitigation plans for climate change. However, the spatial resolution of climate models may be too coarse to obtain reliable regional and local precipitation projections. Therefore, the work has analyzed the impact of spatial resolution in identifying changes in precipitation trends and patterns over CONUS. Results indicate that trend magnitudes and their significance vary largely with resolution. Extreme values (both maximum and minimum) show large differences between resolutions in topographically complex regions. Overall findings from this study indicate that high resolution data are fundamental to detect precipitation patterns and their changes at the local-to- subregional scale and can guide future investigations on selecting the appropriate spatial scale when evaluating precipitation patterns.
Zoom link:
https://gmu.zoom.us/j/94186066361?pwd=bmJodHlSZGNNMW1RWFB2Z0Zhb045UT09
Meeting ID: 941 8606 6361
Passcode: 118928
Find your local number: https://gmu.zoom.us/u/aeHuWzxXbu

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